Monitor 002 / Awaiting departure
Citrini is the first one. The machine does not care what the idea is, only that it said something reality can eventually answer.
A paper, a forecast, an investor letter, a CEO claim, a book, or your own hypothesis. Anything that made a claim about what happens next.
Not "is it right". Ask which parts of it reality is picking up.
Daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, or triggered by an event. Monthly suits most theses about the economy.
Turn the idea into explicit claims and the causal links between them. Citrini became thirteen, and reality added a fourteenth.
For each link, write down what you would expect to see in the world if it were true.
On a fixed cadence, search for what actually happened and attach it to the links it touches.
Supporting, contradicting, or unresolved. Ambiguous evidence stays ambiguous.
Keep what you thought at the time. Later months never edit earlier ones.
Connect new evidence back to the expectations you recorded before you knew the answer.
Take an idea seriously enough to remember what it said, then keep checking.