Two analysts wrote a memo from June 2028 about an AI-driven crash. Every month we check which parts of it are coming true. This is the May 2026 reading, kept exactly as it was written. Source memo: THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS, “What follows is a scenario, not a prediction.”.
So far · Machines: Happening.People: Entry gate.Money: Symptom only.
Summary
The first household-level data worth attaching to the thesis, and the first careful look at graduates. Both show stress. Neither shows the white-collar signature the memo requires. Prime borrowers are slipping, which is what the memo said would happen, but they are slipping everywhere rather than in tech metros, and the timing is well ahead of the job losses that are supposed to cause it.
Status of each link
MACHINESAre the machines good enough, and are companies using them?
PEOPLEAre people losing work and income because of it?
MONEYIs it breaking anything in the financial system?
New evidence in May 2026
2026-05-04New York Fed data: recent-graduate unemployment near 6%, rising twice as fast as the rest of the workforce since 2022
Computer science graduates at 7.0% and engineering at 7.8%. Employment among developers aged 22 to 25 is down nearly 20% from its late-2022 peak. Overall unemployment is around 4%.
The damage is concentrated at the entry gate. That is a real effect, and it is not the same thing as the memo's mass displacement of experienced white-collar workers.
The labour damage that is visible is happening to people who never got hired, not to people who were let go. The memo does not have a link for that.
Still waiting for
Will software defaults follow the aggregate private-credit defaults up?
If the source of credit stress is healthcare and consumer products, is the memo wrong or just early?
Citadel says engineer demand is rising 11%. Does that hold through the year?
What to watch next
Whether prime delinquency stress concentrates in tech metros or stays broad
Graduate hiring data through the summer
Q2 earnings from large SaaS vendors
Research note
Noting a gap in the source thesis rather than in reality. The memo moves from automation straight to layoffs. The observable effect so far runs through hiring that never happens, which produces the same labour-income outcome years later and with far less political noise.