One reading per month, kept exactly as it was written. Later months never edit earlier ones.
September 2026 — An unusually useful month: one important part of the thesis got substantially stronger while another was directly contradicted by the data. Private-credit stress worsened to a new …
August 2026 — This month moves the needle slightly toward the memo, mainly because the employment picture weakened materially after revisions and private-credit defaults set another record. The …
July 2026 — The thesis is becoming more credible at the micro level but remains unconfirmed at the macro level. The strongest live confirmations are rising private-credit defaults, slower hiri…
June 2026 — Three months after publication, the thesis has gone from a niche thought experiment to a widely debated macro scenario. Markets, economists and policymakers now argue about the mec…
May 2026 — The first household-level data worth attaching to the thesis, and the first careful look at graduates. Both show stress. Neither shows the white-collar signature the memo requires.…
April 2026 — A quiet month that moved one thing decisively. Aggregate private-credit defaults set another record, so the financial stress the memo describes is now unambiguously present. The at…
March 2026 — The first month with hard numbers on both halves of the thesis, and they point in opposite directions. Real companies cut real staff and named AI as the reason. At the same time th…
February 2026 — The memo is published on 22 February into a market that has just spent two weeks pricing something very like its first chapter. That is an awkward place to start a monitor from: th…
A predicted symptom appearing does not mean the predicted mechanism caused it.